Sales in the retail anticipate Christmas
O Estado de S. Paulo
In his interview yesterday to the newspaper Valor Econômico, Minister of Finance, Guido Mantega, foresaw an increase of 4% in the sales of the retail this year and 5% in 2010. In fact, he was pessimistic, because in the first ten months of the year, the sales have already increased 5.1% and, considering that in the last two months of last year, amid the crisis, the sales reduced, it is very probable they will now show a bigger monthly increase. As for 2010, everything indicates it may be even better, considering that the effect of the improvement of the income will be added to the effect of the bigger investments. The growth of the sales in the retail (+0.6% in September, +1.4% in October) was followed by a higher growth of the industrial production (+0.8% and +2.2%, respectively).
Taking into account the amplified retail, which includes cars and building material, with a 2.5% fall in October, the difference with the industry gets even higher, because there was a 15.8% fall in the sale of car, which had increase 9% in the previous month, result of the reduction of the tax incentives. Analyzing the data of restricted commerce, it is undeniable that there is a "party feeling", even more noticeable when the volume of the sales is compared to the same month of 2008 and it marks an 8.4% increase.
In fact, all sectors seem positive compared to September of this year, allowing thinking there was even an anticipation of the Christmas shopping, thanks to an improvement of the income. That is reflected in the very important increase of the sales in the supermarket and of food products, with growth of 1.4% - sector of greater weight in the statistics of the retail and which depends essentially on the family income. The Christmas-related sales are responsible for the growth of sectors like clothing (+1.9%), personal and domestic use products (+1.4%), pharmaceutical and perfumery products (+2.8%) and even books and stationery (+1.8%).