Sales in retail at pre-crisis pace
O Estado de S. Paulo
The sales in the retail surprised in February and returned to the pace of growth prior to the crisis, confirming the scenario of strong heating up of the domestic demand. According to data released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), there was a 1.6% increase compared to January, the second consecutive increase in relation to the previous month. According to the economists, the data strengthen the expectation of elevation of the basic interest rate (Selic) this month. In the comparison with February 2009, the sales increased 12.3%, in the greatest variation in relation to the same month of the previous year made since July 2008, prior to the beginning of the effects of international turbulence on the Brazilian economy. Economic Analysts expected, on average, 0.65% growth in the sales in February compared to January.
The technician of the Coordination of Commerce and Services of the IBGE, Reinaldo Pereira, evaluates the heating of the economy is leading to a more consistent growth of the retail, which accumulated an increase of 11.3% in the first two months. "The results reflect the heating of the economy, but also a repressed basis for comparison in February 2009", he said. He pointed out that, even with the 2009 crisis, the retail continued with an increase in the sales, notwithstanding at a pace slower than in 2008. Now, he says, "the crisis seems to have been left behind by the sector".
For analysts, the perspective is of continuity of the increase in the sales of the retail. Alexandre Andrade, of the Tendências Consultoria consulting firm, believes "the sales in the retail should keep the current trajectory of acceleration in the coming months". He explained the main determinants of the internal demand - consumer confidence, credit and salary mass - should progress and he maintains the projection of aggregate increase of 8.3% for the sector this year. According to Andrade, the "robust data of February reflect the continued improvement of the indicators of the labor market and of the conditions of credit to individuals" and they suggest a new cycle of increase in the Selic rate shall start at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to be held on the 27 and 28.