Sales in industry grow for 3rd consecutive month
O Estado de S. Paulo
The industrial recovery is giving clearer signs it is taking place, but still at a slow pace. The industrial indicators announced yesterday by the National Confederation of the Industry (CNI) revealed that there was increase of 0.4% in sales in July, compared to June, the third consecutive increase. There was also increase in the use of the productive capacity, which reached 79.9%. The two indicators are already taking into account the seasonal adjustment that discounts the typical effects of each month in the data.
The chief-economist of the CNI, Flávio Castello Branco, affirmed that, despite the improvement shown in the data of the industry in July and the change of economic setting that is being outlined, we cannot say the crisis is overcome. That because the figures still show a significant fall in comparison with the same month of 2008, when the international crisis was not at its acute stage yet. The industrial sales, for instance, fell 9.2% compared to last year. The use of the installed capacity in July 2008 was at 83.2%, such a high level that, at the time, caused concerns of a possible inflation escalation.
"The crisis in the industrial sector has not been overcome yet, in spite of the clear and more comprehensive improvement. We have already gotten to the bottom of the well. But the industry is still working at a lower level than last year's. The recovery from the crisis will only take place when the indicators resume to the levels of August and September 2008", affirmed the economist. He says the numbers of the industry will only get back to the pre-crisis level in the beginning of 2010. For Castello Branco, the month of August should register new positive data and confirm the clearer resumption of the industry in this third quarter, speeding up in the end of the year. "The second quarter will be much better for the industry", he affirmed.