10/01/2008 14h23
Retailers still foresee a good Christmas
Gazeta Mercantil - 10/01/2008
Hector Nuñez, president in Brazil of Wal-Mart, the biggest supermarket chain in the World, with headquarters in the United States, affirmed recently that, despite the international crisis, the chain should have the best Christmas in the company's history in the Country in 2008. "We know that the Brazilian consumer may be somewhat cautious, but we do not expect a fall in consumption." Pão de Açúcar, through its press service, also affirmed that it keeps its growth goal for the year. The company has sales goals of over R$ 20 billion (US$ 10.4 billion), with a sales growth above 6.5% in the comparison with the same store basis of the previous year. The expectation of the supermarket chains may seem disconnected from the current situation. But it is not excessive optimism. Among chaos, "the Brazilian consumption will continue warmed and commerce can keep good perspectives for this year", affirms Fernanda Della Rosa, manager of the Economy Department of the Federation of Commerce of São Paulo (Fecomercio-SP). "Thanks to highly favorable economic factors such as the increase in income and employment, we will practically not feel the impact of the foreign crisis this year", affirms Fernanda. Nuñez affirmed that neither Wal-Mart nor its credit partner Unibanco consider transferring the increase of interest rates to consumers. However, the executive warns that, at some point, such transfer will be unavoidable. The same holds true for the transfer of industry prices. For now, the situation is of an apparent tranquility. Everything indicates that the supermarket sector will not give up on the good winds that were foreseen for 2008 so easily. Until August, the sector accumulated a 9.36% increase in sales. This performance made the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras) increase its expectation of growth for the year from 4.5% to 5% to an 8% high, which will be the best performance of the last ten years. "Only if a disaster happens we will not reach this goal", affirms Sussumu Honda, president of Abras. At this first moment, he believes that a possible increase in the cost and selectivity in the offer of credit may impact the sales of durable and semi-durable goods. Electro-electronic chains are already taking steps to prevent losses. A survey made by the Shopping Brasil consulting company, specialized in retail monitoring, shows that the electro-electronic chains chose to lengthen payment terms as a way of masking the increase of interest rates, making the installments continue fitting in the consumers' budget. The survey also showed the increase of the average interest rate practiced by the retail commerce in the last months. It went from 4.32% in April to 4.84 in September.
