Retail Sales grow 11% in Q1 in SP
Valor Econômico
It was the first time in a decade that the earnings of the three main activities of the retail of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo have grown together in a single quarter. The sales in supermarkets, car dealerships and stores of electric and electronic devices, which account for more than 60% of the retail sector in the richest region in the country, helped the local retail to grow 11%, in real terms, from January to March this year, compared to the same period of 2009.
The Conjuncture Survey of the Retail (PCCV), exclusively provided to Valor by Fecomercio (Federation of Commerce), shows the tripod made up by greater consumer credit at lower rates, growth in the indices of employment and income and the last period with a reduced IPI (Excise Tax) for vehicles, construction material and items of the white line has justified the progress.
In the opinion of the Economist of Fecomercio, Altamiro Carvalho, the results shall continue firm in the coming months. "Looking at indicators of indebtedness and intention of household consumption we see that the increase in the sales tends to remain strong in the first half", he says. With its disclosure scheduled for today, the PCCV shows the commerce of cars in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo registered growth of 16.8% in earnings in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the first three months of last year, while the sales of electric and electronic devices (12%) and those of the supermarkets (3.4%) have also risen. With increases of 14.4% and 13.2%, respectively, the sectors of clothing and perfumery have contributed for the retail of São Paulo. The negative highlight stayed with the sales in the department stores and construction material, with retraction of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
For Alexandre Andrade, Economist of Tendências Consultoria, the beginning of the process of increase in the interest rates by the Central Bank (BC), together with the end of the reduced IPI for some sectors, will minimize the results of the retail in the second half. "Some financing conditions will worsen; we already foresee an interruption in the extension of the terms for payments and the final rates for individuals should increase, thus affecting the sale of goods that depend on credit".
The Fecomercio says the increase of the interest rate is precipitated. "We are facing specific inflationary pressures", criticizes Carvalho. Thaís Zara, Chief Economist of Rosenberg, disagrees: "Little by little, the high costs in wholesale and in the foods, due to the weather, may get to the retail".