Recovery to be maintained in second half
O Estado de S. Paulo
The production of the Brazilian industry should keep the trend of slow and gradual recovery throughout the second half of the year, in spite of the deceleration seen in June. "Even though the process has lost the vigor, an overturn does not appear in the forecasts", said the President of the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp), Paulo Skaf. Data of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) have shown the production went only 0.2% up in June compared to May. On the average of the first half, the rate was 1.3% a month.
For Skaf, the signal should continue positive in the next months, even because the factors that supported the recovery so far have not lost dynamism. Among others, he mentioned the increase of the offer of credit to consumption and the growth of the salary mass compared to last year. "We cannot take one month only and see it as trend", commented the chief-economist of MB Associados, Sergio Vale. According to him, the fact the growth in the margin was weak in June, does not mean the industry will not recover. " Part of it that depends on the exportation and investments (capital goods) still suffers, but the others are under recovery and will end up by stimulating the sector of capital goods in the future." For Vale, the best moment for the industry will not come this year, but in 2010. "The world should be resuming its growth and here the macroeconomic conditions will be favorable to a stronger growth."
The chief economist of LCA Consultores, Bráulio Borges, emphasized that last month, the confidence of the industry achieved the highest level since October 2008, according to a survey of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV).