Productivity rises with simultaneous increase of production and hours paid
Valor Econômico
Productivity in the industry increases strongly in the beginning of the year, signaling a strong expansion in 2010, after the fall of 1.9% registered in 2009. In the first two months, it grew 16.5% compared to the same period of last year, result of the comparison of the 17.3% increase of the industrial production and 0.7% increase in the number of hours paid to workers. In the series free of seasonal influences, the expansion accumulated by productivity in January and February stayed at 1.5%. Such performance indicates the productivity will resume climb up healthily in 2010, with an increase simultaneous to the production and to the hours paid, emphasizes the consultant of the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi), Júlio Gomes de Almeida, former Secretary of the Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance. That was the pattern followed between 2004 and 2008.
Almeida attributes the recent growth of productivity, fueled up by the strong increase in the production, to two main factors: the resumption of the investments as of the second half of last year and the rationalization of productive processes in light of the crisis. According to him, in the case of purchases of machinery and equipment, the time between the decision of the entrepreneur of investing and the efficiency gains ranges from six months to a year. With that, part of the inversions made since the second half of 2009 in acquisition of machinery has already matured, helping to explain the high productivity. These efficiency gains are important for they make the companies stronger to absorb increases in the cost without pass them on to the prices, he says. "And that is true not only for the costs with the payroll". That is a phenomenon that eases inflationary pressures in the industrial sector.
The result of February indicated a more significant increase of employment and, especially, of the number of hours worked, as showed the Monthly Industrial Survey for Employment and Salary (Pimes) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The personnel working in the industry grew 0.6% compared to January, after the seasonal adjustment, while the hours paid increase 1.5%. Almeida notices that a strong increase in the number of hours worked usually precedes new employee hiring. First, there is an increase in overtime work. Then, with the confirmation the demand is strong, entrepreneurs hire new employees.
Analysts say the pace of the productivity increase in the first two months, of 16.5% compared to the same period of 2009, shall not be sustained throughout the year. The very low basis of comparison of the industrial production explains such a strong result, says Almeida. According to him, the most reasonable is to expect growth from 4% to 5% in the productivity in 2010, which is a fairly positive number. Should it be 5%, it will be the highest rate since the 6.2% registered in 2004.