Pre-salt layer may generate US$ 1.22 billion a year for São Paulo
Valor Econômico
The pre-salt layer may turn São Paulo into the second State in the collection of royalties and special participations of the country in ten years, only behind Rio de Janeiro. The exploration of oil and gas in the basin of Santos, where the pre-salt fields are located, should increase the revenues of São Paulo, regarding both taxes, from R$ 4 million (US$ 2.3 million) to R$ 1.2 billion (US$ 697.7 million) a year as of 2018, according to the estimate of the State Government. In 16 municipalities of the coast of São Paulo, the collection should grow from R$ 140.5 million (US$ 81.7 million), in 2008, to R$ 931.9 million (US$ 541.8 million) in 2018. In total, it would amount to R$ 2.1 billion (US$ 1.22 billion) for the State and the municipalities. Only with the payment of royalties from oil and gas, the State of São Paulo may collect R$ 685 million (US$ 398.3 million) as of 2018.
The projection of the revenues was made by the Institute of Technological Research (IPT, in Portuguese) based on the wells that have already been bid and taking into consideration the rules in force by the current oil exploration and royalty division laws. The production of the Carioca, Parati, Guará and Bem-te-vi fields has been considered, with a total estimated production of 500 thousand barrels of oil a day and 2 million cubic meters of gas a day as of 2018. The study used the sale price of the Brent barrel, US$ 118, of the Brazilian barrel, US$ 84, and the dollar equivalent to R$ 2 as reference. The potentials of the fields were estimated based on data provided by Petrobras.
The projection is important to assess the impact the development of the new market may generate on the coast of São Paulo, according to José Roberto dos Santos, coordinator of the Oil and Natural Gas Special Commission (Cespeg), an agency linked to the Secretariat of Development of the State which gathers other State secretariats, municipal governments and the organized civil society. Although the focus of the Federal Congress for the revision of the criteria for the distribution of royalties is in the dispute among the States that produce oil and those that don't do so, there are collection distortions among municipalities as well.
The growth of the revenue in São Paulo will be more concentrated in some cities, from which Ilhabela stands out. The collection of the taxes in the municipality should exceed the current public revenue (R$ 434 million/US$ 252.3 million) five times. Other municipalities that should be pointed out regarding the collection of taxes as of 2018 are São Sebastião, with an estimate of R$ 93 million/year (US$ 54.1 million/year), Bertioga (R$ 78 million/US$ 45.3 million), Caraguatatuba (R$ 76 million/US$ 72 million) and Cubatão (R$ 62 million/US$ 36 million). Unlike Ilhabela, however, these cities should receive important investments for the development of the oil and gas market in the region.
Cubatão is one of the strategic cities for the development of the naval industry in the State. Four areas which range in size from 500 thousand square meters (m²) to 1 million m² have already been mapped by the State Government in the estuary of Santos and are apt to receive the construction of shipyards. Today, the coast of São Paulo has only one, in the municipality of Guarujá. In the project of expansion of the port of São Sebastião, the construction of an offshore support base, a specific port to provide assistance to oil platforms, in an area of 150 thousand m² is foreseen. Petrobras is studying an area in Guarujá for the construction of its base but, according to the coordinator of the Cespeg, the base in São Sebastião may cater to other companies. In Caraguatatuba, a space of 10 million m² located inside Fazenda Serramar, a farm owned by Serveng, should be used for a retroport, an area of support to port activities. Bertioga, on its turn, should have areas intended for the setting up of industries that supply materials and services to the oil companies.