Pace of investment resumes growing in 1st quarter
Valor Econômico
The investment resumed growing strongly in the beginning of 2011, after showing signs of loss of breath at the end of last year. In the first quarter, the production and the imports of capital goods had major growth, as well as the manufacture of typical construction inputs. According to estimates of MB Associados, in January and February the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 13.6% compared to the same period last year. Compared to the last quarter of 2010, there were growth of 2.7% after the seasonal adjustment.
The result indicates the expansion of the productive capacity continues strong in the economy, a very positive piece of news, which will help reduce inflationary pressures in the medium and long term, says the Chief Economist of MB Associados, Sérgio Vale. He remarks, however, that in the short term it is one more factor to fuel up the demand at a time in which inflation is high. "Anyway, it is a major change in a trajectory that seemed to be a slowdown", says Vale.
In the fourth quarter of 2009, the gross fixed capital formation (measure of the national accounts of what is invested in construction and in machinery and equipment) increased 0.7% compared to the previous quarter after the seasonal adjustment. In the third quarter, there had been a much stronger high, of 3.1%. For Vale, the loss of vigor of the investment at the end of 2010 was inharmonious in the general scenario of the economy, which continued to show great dynamism. The re-acceleration of the expenditure on machinery and construction at the beginning of the year seems more befitting to the country's economic scenario, in which the perspectives of growth remain very favorable.
In January and February, the production of capital goods grew 13.1% compared to the same period in 2010, while the imports grew 30.7%. With that, the domestic consumption of machines and equipment (sum of the domestic production and the external purchases, excluding the exports) increased 15.8% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2010, while the manufacturing of inputs for construction grew 9.1%. Based on the evolution of both indicators, Vale calculated in 13.6% the increase of the GFCF in Q1 compared to the same period of time in 2010. It is an expressive number, above the increase of 12.3% of the fourth quarter of last year, on that basis of comparison. According to Vale, the performance of the beginning of the year may lead him to raise the forecast for the increase of the investment in 2011, currently at 9.1%.
The calculations of the Chief Economist of Rosenberg & Associados, Thais Marzola Zara, also point to a robust expansion in the investments in the first quarter. In the comparison with January and February, he estimated growth of 13.4%, similar to that of MB. As regards the last quarter of last year, the bet is of a 1.1% expansion in series without seasonal influences. For her, the signs the demand remains strong, the attractive loan conditions of the National Development Bank (BNDES) and the heavy investments of Petrobras help explain the positive behavior of the gross fixed capital formation.
Despite that, Thaís makes a more modest forecast for the investment in the year, betting on growth of 6%. Part of the caution is explained by the stronger basis of comparison - in 2010 it grew 21.8% - and by the fact there are several ongoing measures to slow down the economic activity. She considers it premature to review the projection for the year. She rather wait for the result of the industrial production in the first quarter end.