Orange juice record price cheers up industry and national producer
O Estado de S. Paulo
The Brazilian Orange producers start the year with the calculator in their hands to try to know how much more they will be able to earn with the high price of the orange juice in the New York Stock Exchange. The bad weather in Florida, leading producer of orange in the United States, has pushed the price of juice up in the future market. In the last 30 days, the price rose from US$ 2,270 per ton, on average, to nearly US$ 2,600. Yesterday, the commodity closed at US$ 2,668, the highest value of the last three and a half years.
With the possibility of a crop loss in the United States, grows the probability of the positive scenario in 2010 - both for producers and for the industry of juice - repeat that of this year. The forecast of Citrus-BR, which represents the manufacturers of juice - Cutrale, Citrosuco, Citrovita and Louis Dreyfuss -, is that exports, which last year amounted to US$ 1.775 billion, get to US$ 2 billion in 2011.
The producers expect this year they will also be able to benefit from the highest remuneration, as it happened last year. The price paid the producers for a box of oranges increased from R$ 6 (US$ 3) to R$ 15 (US$ 8.8) from 2008 to 2010. The rise on the prices results from the fall in the production in recent years, which resulted from problems with diseases (mainly greening, which forces producers to cut the sick tree) and also from the fact the price had not been making up for the increase of the planted area. With less orange available, the industry paid more to assure the stocks and not lose room for other international producers and also for other fruit such as apples, which have grown over the domains of the orange.
Experts believe that, in a worst-case scenario, the price at the end of the year should be kept this harvest. The negotiations between industry and producers began last month, says Paulo Biasioli, representative of citrus growers of Limeira (SP). "The price for this harvest should be close to that of 2010, but the industry will always cry over the price", he says. Biasioli assesses the record price of the juice should have an important weight in the composition of the amounts paid the producers. Nevertheless, it is not the only factor. "We have to take into consideration the level of the stocks in the industry, the international evolution in the consumption and the American production. Should there be a crop loss there, it would increase the demand for the Brazilian juice", he details.
Christian Lohbauer, President of Citrus-BR, is cautious: "Those are speculated prices in the future market. One ton sold at US$ 2.6 thousand is a dream summer night dream. But who knows, maybe in six months the prices are near US$ 2.5 thousand per tons, which would be very good and, at the same time, rare in the market", he says. Regardless of the record prices, Carlos Viacava, Director of Cutrale, the scenario for this crop is still not so clear. "So far, there is a lot of speculation. It will depend on how the weather will behave in Florida and whether the crop will be good here", he says. He also complains of the foreign exchange, not favorable to the exports, and of the increase in the price of the box of orange. Half of the world production of orange juice comes out from the Brazilian orchards, which gives the Country 85% of international market share - the USA, another great producer, consume practically everything they produce.
If the industry and producers celebrate the high price, the final consumer and those who depend on the juice industry do not say the same. That is the case of Yoki, which has a line of soy-based and fruit juices, Mais Vita. Gabriel Cherubini, Vice President of the company says:. "Since this segment depends so much on the new middle class, we prefer to sacrifice the profit margins not to have to transfer the increases in the price of orange to the final price".