Optimistic, Retail foresees 7% high for 2010
DCI
The figures of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) demonstrate that the retail sales have risen compared to last year's and already allow envisioning an even more optimistic setting for next year. It should end this year with nearly 5% of growth and 7% in 2010, according to projections made by experts.
According to the IBGE, despite a small high - 0.3% - in September compared to August, the retail in general has already had a 4.7% growth in sales from January to September 2009. Among the segments of the retail that have had the strongest growth and should end the year with a high are supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; office and computer material and equipment; and vehicles and motorcycles. As for the segments that should end with a fall are fabrics, clothing and footwear and construction material, but even these may already have a movement of recovery during the Christmas season and in 2010.
In the area of clothing, which, according to the data of the IBGE, had a 6.6% fall in sales in September and may end the year with a fall compared to last year, a better performance as of Christmas is already foreseen and the fall should not affect the large chains and department stores. "The fall affects mainly the small retail and the explanation can still be the increase in the price of products and the migration of the consumer's income to the segment of supermarkets and to the payment of durable goods", explains Luiz Goes, senior partner and Director of GS&MD Gouvêa de Souza. Douglas Uemura, specialist of the LCA consulting firm, also bets on a recovery: "The clothing segment is taking a little longer, but we believe it can grow above 10% in 2010", he says.
For the LCA economist, retail should end this year with a 5.5% growth over 2008 and, in 2010, the projection is a 7.8% increase. "Supermarkets have not stopped growing, clothing should speed up, home appliances and vehicles have already had a big acceleration". He also affirms the figures evidence the Country recovered from the crisis fast. For Luis Goes, the salary mass should grow and inflation should not rise in 2010, indicating retail may be able to go through new major growths, getting back to the level it was two years ago.