10/31/2008 08h42
ONS reduces risk of energy shortage to almost zero
Valor Econômico - 10/31/2008
Projections recently compiled by the National Operator of the Electric System (ONS) demonstrate a risk of energy deficit - even if of only one megawatt - inferior to 5%, in the next five years, for all regions of the country. This index is in accordance with the safety rules for matrices based on water sources, as Brazil's, more dependent on the rain's rates. In the case of deficits bigger than 1% of the whole charge - equivalent to a demand around 1,000 MW bigger than the offer - the risk drops to levels inferior to 3%, according to the ONS. The data were given to Valor by the entity's general director Hermes Chipp, who considers the chances of problems in the energy supply "practically null". The calculations made by the ONS already take into account the last auctions held by the National Agency of Electric Energy (Aneel), including the contraction of spare energy generated from the sugarcane bagasse and the review of the estimates for the national charge. Chipp hopes to get to November 30th, when the rains tend to intensify, having reached the target level of the dams. The goal is to reach 53% of storage in the Southeast/Mid-West dams and 35% in the Northeast ones. If this volume of stored water is reach, the ONS guarantees that there will be no chance of rationing in 2009, even in the occurrence of the worst drought in the Northeast region's history and Southeast/Mid-West regions second worst one. Although reaching these levels requires effort from the operator throughout November, it means a relevant change regarding the worrying situation of the beginning of 2008, when the delay in rains brought back the menace of an energy blackout back to the country's horizon. Chipp affirms that the target levels will be reach if it rains 100% of the historical average in the Southeast. Except for the North region, the stored water stock in the other dams is a little more comfortable than in the same time last year. The difference now is that, besides the perspective of rains without any delays, there is high volume of water in the South region's dams. In October, it rained 160% of the historical average in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina. And the region's dams now have almost 90% of their maximum capacity. With that, the ONS decided to set up a strategy to transfer more than 3 thousand average MW from the South to the Southeast region, in order to save the water of this region.
