Oil sector will represent 14% of the investment in 2014
Valor Econômico
Even in the preliminary phase of exploration of the pre-salt layer, oil and gas industry will lead the investment in Brazil in the next years. Their share in the total of the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) annual of the country must reach 14.7% in 2014, more than the double of the 6% in 2000. The conclusion is of a new study of the economist André Albuquerque Sant'Anna, manager of the research and economic monitoring area of BNDES. The work will be published in the "Vision for Development", a publication of the state bank. The Gross Fixed Capital measures how much the country invests in machinery and equipment and in the civil construction in a given period.
The work of Sant'Anna was made from a forecast of investment in oil and gas in Brazil of R$ 378 billion (US$ 222.4 billion) in the period from 2011 to 2014 - more than the double of the R$ 180 billion (US$ 107.8 billion) invested from 2005 to 2008 -, taking into account a nationalization rate close to 55% of these investments, totaling R$ 205 billion (US$ 120.6 billion) to be invested directly in Brazil. The study points out that from the investments planned for until 2014, the pre-salt, still in its early years, will receive only 15% (R$ 45 billion/US$ 26.5 billion).
With these numbers, the technician of BNDES calculated, segment by segment, the total impact, direct and indirect, of the investments on the national economy. For the calculation, he used a matrix of absorbing of investments developed by the Institute of Economics of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), which assesses how every R$ 100 (US$ 59) invested in 55 sector of the economy are distributed. The result was the transformation of the initial R$ 205 billion (US$ 120.6 billion) in R$ 407 billion (US$ 239.4 billion), almost the double.
"The investments carried out by the oil and gas industry have an important role in mobilizing a broad chain of goods and services suppliers ", he says. For example, acording to the calculation of Sant'Anna, the R$ 190 billion (US$ 111.8 billion) that would be invested in national machinery and equipment for the oil and gas sector in the period in analysis will generate na additional of R$ 43 billion (US$ 25.3 billion) in other machines and equipment for sub-suppliers.
These businesses will generate an additional of R$ 90 billion (US$ 52.9 billion) in indirect investments in metallurgy and other productive sectors, while the direct investment in these sectors do not exceed R$ 5 billion (US$ 2.9 billion). According to the economist, the fact that the oil and gas industry is "highly intensive in machinery and equipment" also has as beneficial side effect, the fact that it can become a pole of attraction of technology to Brazil, as already has been occurring.