Market improves Brazilian GDPs projection in 2009
O Estado de S. Paulo
The estimate for the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2009 showed a slight improvement on the Focus weekly survey published by the Banco Central (BC, the Brazilian Central Bank) today. In the survey made with financial institutions, the forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year went from a retraction of 0.30% to a contraction of 0.16%. For 2010, the forecast for the GDP was kept at a growth of 4%. In the same survey, the estimate for the industrial production in 2009 registered worsening, going from a 6.93% fall to a 7.33% decline. For 2010, the projection for the performance of the industry went from a growth of 5.10% to a 5.65% one.
The Focus survey kept the forecast that the basic interest rate (Selic) should end the year at the current rate of 8.75% a year. For the end of 2010, the projection that the Selic rate increases to 9.25% a year was also kept. The financial market increased the expectation for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2009, from 4.29% to 4.30%. The forecast of analysts remained below the inflation goal for this year, which is 4.50%. In the same research, the estimate for the IPCA in 2010 was kept at 4.30%, below the center of the goal that is also 4.50% next year.
Analysts have kept the forecast for the dollar price level at the end of the year. The North-American currency level at the end of 2009 remained at R$ 1.85, the same price expected for the end of 2010. The forecast for the average exchange rate throughout 2009 was kept at R$ 2.01. The financial market has also changed the forecasts for the deficit in the external accounts in 2009. The forecast for the current account deficit this year increased from US$ 15 billion to US$ 15.05 billion. For 2010, the current account deficit forecast of the balance of payments increased from US$ 22 billion to US$ 22.2 billion. As for the trade surplus forecast in 2009, it went from US$ 24 billion to US$ 24.3 billion. For 2010, the estimate for the surplus of the trade balance remained at US$ 18 billion. Analysts have kept the estimate for the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).in 2009, at US$ 25 billion. For 2010, the FDI estimate remained at US$ 30 billion.