Machinery industry gives signs of resumption in third quarter
Valor Econômico
Recent data shows the apparent consumption of machinery and equipment in the country had a slight increase, 1.4%, on the average of July and August compared to the monthly average of the second quarter. Considering the result of August in relation to that of July, there was stability, with a fall of 0.2%. The figure, result of the sum of the production of capital goods plus the imports, excluded exports, is a sign the Brazilian industry started investing again.
The apparent consumption accumulated consecutive falls in the last quarters. It fell 8% in the last three months of last year in relation to the immediately preceding period, 10.1% in the first quarter of 2009 over the last quarter of 2008, and 1.6% in the second quarter in the same basis of comparison. According to Douglas Uemura, economist of LCA Consultores, indexes like the confidence of the industry, which is with at its best value since October last year, and the level of use of the installed capacity (Nuci), which had recent advances, provide the basis for the positive projection.
The data from September shows that the Nuci reached 81.9%. According to calculations made by LCA, above 81.5% is a level that stimulates the investment in expansion. The lowest point of the use of the installed capacity of the industry was seen in February this year, when it got to 77.6%. "From then on it increased 4.3 percentage points, a fair recovery. It is near the historical average", he says.
The recovery of the production of machinery and equipment is an indication the companies have started investing again, since the exports have been having a bad performance - a 15% fall on the average of July and August compared to the monthly average of the second quarter. The products are supplying the domestic market. In August, the sector of capital goods registered the fifth consecutive increase in production, 0.4% compared to July. Compared to the performance of March, month which had the smallest production of the sector during the crisis, the increase in August reached 7.6%, without seasonal adjustments. "The fall was very strong though, 31% in March compared to September of last year. Therefore, the industry of capital goods still has a long way to go", says Uemura.
Even with the perspective of recovery in this second half, the investments should fall nearly 10% compared to last year according to the calculations of the LCA. Considering the accumulated in the year in relation to last year, there is a 14% decrease in the apparent consumption of capital goods. The earnings of the industry of machinery and equipment increased 17.7% in August compared to July, pointing to a recovery of the sector. "In view of better perspectives, the companies have taken some projects out of the drawer, even though the operations are far from what can be considered a resumption", says Mário Benardini, economy director of the Abimaq, entity that represents the industry of machinery manufacturers.