Low stocks drive the industry in early 2011
Valor Econômico
The manufacturers of products such as electric appliances and electronics start 2011 with adjusted levels of stock, an important factor of impulse to production. In the Industrial Center of Manaus (PIM), the companies bet their chips in the beginning of a positive year, according to the Economic Advisor to the Presidency of the Federation of the Industries of the State of Amazonas (Fieam), Gilmar Freitas. He says the orders are firm, pointing to an increase in the production in January of 15% compared to the same period last year, a month in which the economic activity had been strong. Based on the volume of orders placed to the companies of the PIM, Freitas believes the retailers turned the year with low stocks, near those "featured at the end of 2009", levels that helped leverage the deals last year. Like in 2010, Freitas believes the sector of electric and electronic devices, the locomotive of the PIM, should register the best performance in 2011.
The President of the Brazilian Association of the Electrical and Electronics Industry (Abinee), Humberto Barbato, also expects good growth in early 2011, due to the level of orders in December. The companies selling durable consumer goods should have a fairly positive year, he says. In the case of those manufacturing capital goods, there are promising perspectives, due to the favorable scenario for investments in infrastructure and the My House, My Life program (that favors companies that manufacture electric installation materials, for instance). The fear of Barbato, however, is that part of that demand is not met by the Brazilian companies. The valued rate of exchange and the high cost of production in the country affect the competitiveness of the Brazilian companies", he says.
The strong foreign competition is one of the factors that can limit a higher flight of the industry in 2011, in the opinion of the Chief Economist of the brokerage firm Convenção, Fernando Montero. For him, the increase of the production of intermediate goods (inputs) is a positive signal that often anticipates an increase in the production of the rest of the industry, as well as the fall of the stocks. The matter, he said, is that the domestic demand has been significantly met by imported products, in a scenario of valued exchange rate. That may limit the vigor of the industry in 2011. For Montero, it is also necessary to check the real magnitude of the fall in the stocks of cars in December, to be announced today, to get an idea of the potential of growth of the sector in the beginning of the year. From July to November, the stocks fell from 330 thousand units to 291 thousand, to him, a not so expressive fall.