Ipea foresees record consumption in Christmas
O Estado de S. Paulo 09/06/10
The payment of the Christmas' year-end salary and the greater offer of credit for the consumer should inject R$ 106.8 billion (US$ 61.0 billion) in the economy until December, 12.2% more than in the same period in 2009. The number represents R$ 11.4 billion (US$ 6.5 billion) more in the pockets of the Brazilian consumers, which should boost the increase of consumption and accelerate the pace of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter. According to economists, the environment favors the increase of consumption. Ease in obtaining credit and the increase in the levels of employment and income, associated to the scenario of low inflation, have improved the mood of the consumers.A monthly survey made by Ibope Inteligência, in partnership with the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) reveals the Brazilian was never so optimistic, over the past ten years, as he is now. The index that measures consumer expectation reached, in August, its highest level since 2001, in the beginning of the historical series of the survey. It achieved 119.3 points, 2.1 more than in December last year, the previous record. The fixed base of the index is 100. Above such value, the expectation is positive. Consumer optimism was mainly driven by the expectations regarding the fall of unemployment and inflation. The indicator of evolution of unemployment over the next six months increased 8.6% compared to July and reached the highest value of the historical series. As regards the number of people waiting for the fall of inflation, it increased 8%. The survey was made with nearly 2 thousand people across the country between September 18 and August 21.
"It's going to be a very good year for the credit since people are motivated to get into debt when they feel safe on their jobs", says the Vice-President of the National Association of Executives in Finance, Administration and Accounting, Miguel Ribeiro de Oliveira. Banks are also motivated to lend when the risk of default is lower. In such a positive scenario, Ribeiro de Oliveira calculates the offer of consumer credit reaches R$ 18 billion (US$ 10.3 billion) between September and December, compared to the R$ 14 billion (US$ 7.1 billion) in the same period in 2009.
It is the easy credit offer that assures the purchase of durable consumer goods such as televisions and household appliances, among other items of high unit value. But it is the cash from the Christmas Year-End Salary that should support much of the growth of consumption in the last quarter of 2010. The payment of the so-called Christmas bonus is what should put R$ 88.3 billion (US$ 50.5 billion) on the market until December, estimates the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea). The mass of funds from the Christmas Year-End Salary is 9.15% greater than that paid last year. The increase of the real average salary was estimated at 4.9% and the growth of employment, at 4.5%.