09/11/2008 14h10
Investment and consumption give Chinese rhythm to GDP
Valor Econômico - 09/11/2008
Supported by the companies' and government's record investments in machines, equipment and construction, the Brazilian economy grew over the estimates in the second quarter and closed the last semester in high of 6%. In the comparison with the second quarter of 2007, the growth rate reached 6.1%. In relation to the first semester, the GDP showed expansion of 1.6%. "The GDP has been growing in a rhythm of 6% a year", said the manager of Quarterly Accounts of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Rebecca Palis. She remarks that the effect of the new cycle of the high in interest rates, started in April by the Central Bank, was not felt in the second semester. Without considering the negative effect of the foreign sector (imports and exports of goods and services) over the GDP, of 2.5 percent, the rhythm of domestic expansion is comparable to the Chinese one. According to the calculation of Head Economist of LCA Consultores, Bráulio Borges, the domestic demand grew 8.5% in the first semester. "It is the investment that is maintaining the growth of the GDP. Without investment, the GDP would be at 4% per year", said Borges. Investments had high of 16.2% in the second quarter, the 18th consecutive high in comparison to the same period of the previous year and record in the historical series of IBGE that started in 1996. The investment rate over the GDP, 18.7%, was the highest ever registered for a second quarter since 2000, when the indicator's series has started. In the semester, the level of the investment high was also record-breaking and reached 15.7%. According to LCA's calculations, in non-seasonable terms, the investment rate was 19%, the highest one since the first quarter of 1998 in comparison with all quarters in the analyzed period. The consumption of the families, representing nearly 60% of the GDP, continued in a high level, but diminished slightly and went from 6.9% to 6.7% from the first to the second quarter in comparison with the same period of the previous year. For IBGE, the consumption expansion was motivated mainly by the increase of the salary mass. In the second quarter, the salary mass of the Brazilian people had high of 8.1%. In addition to this, abundant credit and long terms for loan payments contributed for the expansion. There was a growth of 32.9% in the balance of credit operations with free proceeds for natural persons. The growth rate of the families' consumption in non-seasonable terms was 2.1% in the second semester of 2007 and diminished to 0.7% until July of 2008. In the perspective of production, the GDP's highlight was agriculture, whose expansion was 4.8% compared to the second quarter of 2007, because of the good coffee and corn crops, and also due to productivity gains that started being accounted by IBGE since 2008. The industry was also in an elevated level, 5.7%, driven by civil construction.
