Industry surpasses confidence level
O Estado de S. Paulo
Almost half (49.9%) of the industry foresees increase in the production of their plants for the quarter from September to November, according to the Conjuncture Survey of the Processing Industry made by Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV). It is practically the same pre-crisis level, from September last year (50.4%), already discounting the typical influences of this period. Between September and November it is Christmas for the industries. It is when the plants produce the items that will be sold at the store shelves in December.
The indications of the recovery of the industry and of a promising quarter is also clear in the result of the production index foreseen for three months, which takes into account the balance between the percentage of companies that bet in the increase of the production and those that believe in the fall, adding 100. This index reached 139.2 points in September. "It is the highest mark registered since April 1991 (139.6 points)", emphasizes the coordinator of the research, Aloisio Campelo.
The FGV survey monthly questions 1,125 industries. Together, those companies earn more than R$ 600 billion (US$ 333.3 billion) a year, employ 1.3 million workers and are the source of the information used to assess the Industry Confidence Index (ICI). In September, the ICI increased for the ninth consecutive month. The increase amounted to 3.6% compared to August, with the seasonal adjustment. The index reached 109.5 points, the highest level since September 2008 (115 points). The favorable result of the ICI was supported by the optimism in the production foreseen both for the quarter and for six months, observes Campelo. The business tendency for six months was responsible for 40.9% of the 3.6% growth of the ICI in September. The segments of steel, chemistry, mechanics and foods are the ones that presented the greatest levels of optimism for the business in six months.