Industry retreats in December, but intermediate and capital goods have high
Valor Econômico
Regardless of falling, both in the month and year, the survey of production of the industry released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) presents a recovery of the sectors that are on the basis of the activity, signaling bigger future growth. While the group of the industry suffered retraction of 0.3% between November and December last year, the production of capital goods and inputs for civil engineering - which increase the capacity of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - maintained the growth seen in the last months of 2009.
The negative result of December was influenced by the fall of almost 5% suffered by the manufacturers of durable consumer goods, which repeated the strong fall already seen in November. The retraction, however, occurred in the sector that increased the production the most during last year. Between January and October 2009, the monthly production of durable consumer goods (cars, cell phones and home appliances) grew 92.3%. According to Isabella Nunes, manager of analysis and statistics of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), the fall accumulated by the sector in the last two months of the year - of 9.9% - resulted from the end of the factors that sustained the prior growth. "The tax incentives began being withdrawn at the end of October and, furthermore, there was a fall in electric and electronic appliances, such as cell phones, because the biggest importing markets, Argentina and Venezuela, went through trouble", she analyzes. "This loss of breath is natural in view of the significant high that happened before. It is nothing to be terrified of", she says.
According to analysts consulted by Valor, the growth of 2009 should be little affected by the results of industry in December. Economists are working with a GDP near zero last year. The positive indicators in the basic sectors, however, favor the growth of 2010. Mainly because, according to them, they serve to support an elevated increase of the activity that may get close to, or even exceed, the mark of 6% this year.
The Chief Economist of Rosenberg & Associados, Thaís Zara, assesses the resumption of the GDP, combined with the fall of the investments led to a downward trajectory in the investment/GDP ratio throughout 2009. From the 19% of 2008, the relationship decreased slowly until it got to 16.9% in the third quarter. According to Fernando Montero, Chief Economist of the Convenção brokerage firm, the 1% high in the production of intermediate goods between December and November of last year is "very important", since the "intermediate goods serve to indicate the stage in which the group of the industry finds itself". The IBGE calculates the intermediate goods represent nearly 60% of the industry. In the year to date, the production of the sector suffered an 8.8% fall and, according to data of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the level of use of the installed capacity (Nuci) of the manufacturers of intermediate goods is still far from the apex of the pre-crisis period: 84% and 87.5%, respectively.
The two sectors highlighted by Montero as the grounds for the growth of the activity, machinery and equipment (capital goods) and inputs for civil engineering, also accumulated fall last year. Besides, there is margin to increase the production without causing inflationary pressure. While the plants of capital goods ended 2009 nearly eight percentage points below the apex of 88.4% reached in August 2008, the producers of construction material reached 86.2% in the end of the year - in the pre-crisis, the sector reached 91.3%.