Industry resumes average of use of capacity
Valor Econômico
The level of use of the installed capacity in the processing industry reached 82% this month, the eighth consecutive increase in the data with seasonal adjustment. The figure is the same of the average that has been registered since 2003, but it is still far from the peak of June, 2008 (86.7%), considering the series since 1980. The data was disclosed by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) yesterday and is part of the Industrial Survey made with 1,065 companies.
For Aloísio Campelo, coordinator of the FGV Economic Analysis and Research Center, it shows that there will be "acceleration in the demand for machines and equipment still this year", but he rules out an immediate effect in the prices. "The perception is that the Brazilian economy can resume growing without great inflationary pressures", he evaluates.
The segments that should be "closely" monitored, according to Campelo, are those that are part of durable consumer goods - which include the white line products and vehicles - and building material. These products present 90.1% and 89.1% of use of the capacity, respectively. However, since both have been benefited from the reduction of the Excise Tax (IPI), it is necessary to analyze the behavior of the sales with the return of the taxation. The segment of cars and utility vehicles reached 90.5% of use of the capacity this month, compared to 92.2% in October of last year.
The level of stocks had slight decrease in the comparison with the previous month (2.5%), but it presented an increase of 3.1% in the comparison with October, 2008, which, for Campelo, points to a resumption of the balance. The number of people interviewed that considers the stock insufficient (3.9%) is near that which considers it excessive (5.9%). The level of demand, on its turn, increased once more influenced by the demand in the domestic market, which registered an increase of 6.0% compared to September. The external demand had an increase of 3.1%.
The Industry Confidence Index (ICI) reached the highest level since September, 2008 and the perception of the entrepreneurs for the next months presented improvement in all topics. "It is a virtuous setting, in spite of the foreign market", affirms Campelo. The number of entrepreneurs (4.3% of the total) that expects to reduce the production in October, November and December is the smallest of the series commenced in 1980, which also made the index break a record. Asked about the problems for the increase of the production, 69% said there are no factors that limit such growth.