Industry has the best result in 20 years
O Estado de S. Paulo
The industrial sector has practically zeroed the effects of the crisis and grew above the expected in March. The production increased 2.8% compared to February and increased 19.7% compared to March last year, the best result since April 1991. With the acceleration of the process of recovery early this year, the sector ended the first quarter with an accumulated growth of 18.1%, the best quarterly result in 20 years.
In March, the industry operated at a level of only 0.1% below the record level of September 2008, before the beginning of the effects of the crisis on the sector, as observed the economist of the coordination of industry of the IBGE, André Macedo. "The industry practically got rid of the effects of the crisis observed in the last three months of 2008", he said.
In February 2010, the sector still operated at a level 2.8% below the record of September 2008. According to Macedo, the data of March shows "a generalized profile of growth and recovery of the industrial activity". Proof of that is that 77% of products surveyed by the Institute registered increase in the production in the month, in the best result since the beginning of the historical series of that indicator, in January 2003.
Among the categories of use surveyed, only the semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (foods, clothing, footwear) are already operating at a level above (3.0% greater) that of September 2008, at the highest historical level of production. Macedo recalls this category is being fueled up by the good results of employment and income. The category of intermediate goods (steel, inputs for civil engineering) is already at the same level of that period, whereas durable consumer goods (cars, home appliances, 0.6% below) and capital goods (7.4% below) have not been able to fully recover yet.
The increase seen in the production of the industry in March compared to the previous month stayed above the expected by the economic analysts that, according to the survey of Agência Estado, projected growth of 1.85%, on the average. According to Macedo, the strong expansion in relation to March 2009 reflects the low basis for comparison, "the greatest pace of production in 2010" and the fact that March this year had one business day more than the same month last year.
Despite celebrating the strong industrial growth in the first quarter and projecting a positive result in the year, economists believe in a decline in the pace of growth. Douglas Uemura, economist of LCA Consultores, believes the production will reach and remain at an even higher level but with less growth. On his turn, the Economist of the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi), Rogério Souza, considers the data of the first quarter are "excellent", but he also projects deceleration.