Industry has best January since 1995
O Estado de S. Paulo
The performance of the industry in January confirms that 2010 will be very different from 2009. Production increased 1.1% compared to December and 16% compared to January last year, the best result assessed by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) for the months of January since 1995. The segment of intermediate goods, which includes raw materials and inputs and has greater weight in the survey, drove the positive balance. For analysts, the perspective is of moderate growth in the sector this year, after the fall of 2009.
The leaps in production in relation to the beginning of 2009 are considered natural because the crisis was at its peak at that time. But the so-called growth at the end of the chain, in relation to the previous month, shows the economy is at a fast pace. The result of January made up for the losses of December (-0.2%) and November (-0.8%) 2009, assessed the economist of the coordination of industries of the IBGE, André Macedo.
In the case of the production of capital goods (industrial machinery and equipment), which reflects the decisions of investments, the production is still 11.6% below that of September 2008. Macedo recalls this category has very strong relationship with the expectations. "There were many uncertainties at the end of 2008 and beginning of last year, but there is an important speed of reaction in recent months". The production of intermediate goods, which includes steel, mining and fertilizers, among others, increased by 2% in January compared to December in the 13th consecutive positive result, period in which it accumulated an increase of 22%. The increase was driven by metal products, basic metallurgy and a portion of the production of foods and beverages. This segment, responsible for the supply of the industry, was the segment that got the closest to its September 2008 level. It is only 0.8% below such level.
According to the analysts, the perspectives are of continuation of the recovery of the industry. Alessandra Ribeiro, of the Tendências Consultoria consulting firm, assesses that, although the results are influenced by the weak basis of comparison of early 2009, the data of the IBGE "signal the perspectives for the industrial production are favorable in the coming months, with the continuation of the recovery scenario". Douglas Uemura, of the LCA, foresees "moderate growth in 2010". The estimation of the consulting firm is of an increase of 10.5% in production on YTD.