Industry gives stronger signs of resumption
O Estado de S. Paulo
The signs of recovery of the industry were stronger in October, evidenced by the good performance of the durable consumer goods and by the increase in the pace of reaction of the investments. The impetus of the domestic consumption and of capital goods guaranteed growth of 2.2% in October compared to September, the tenth consecutive positive rate compared to the previous month. The 3.2% fall in relation to October 2008 was the slightest retreat of monthly performance compared to the same month of the previous year since the beginning of the crisis.
"Lesser fall is also recovery", said the manager of analysis of the coordination of industries of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Isabella Nunes. She pointed out that, despite the recovery of the industry along 2009 and the growth of 19.5% in October compared to December of last year, the industrial production in October was still 5.7% below that from September of 2008, the beginning of the crisis.
According to her, the data confirms the industrial reaction. It does not confirm the consolidation, though. "The recovery would be consolidated if we were at the level of production we were before the crisis, but we are still at the level of October of 2007. At the apex of the crisis, in December 2008, we had returned to the level of 2004", she said.
The Economist of the Institute of Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi), Rogério Souza, emphasized the diversified nature of the reaction of the industry, since 21 of the 27 segments surveyed presented increase in the production in October compared to September.
Isabella also stressed the bigger spread of the recovery of the industry as per products. She mentioned, as an evidence of such spread, the diffusion index that showed growth in the production in 42% of the 750 products surveyed in October, compared to the same month of last year. In September this year, the diffusion index pointed to an increase of 34%, on the same comparison basis. "The data presented a very favorable performance of the industry in October that accompanies the improvement of the economic setting as a whole", says Bernardo Wjuniski, of the Tendências Consultoria consulting firm.