Industrial production stabilizes at a high level
O Estado de S. Paulo
For the first time in 16 months, the Level of Use of the Installed Capacity (Nuci) of the industry fell in May, compared to the previous month. After reaching one of the highest levels in April, 85.1%, the installed capacity of the processing industry fell to 84.9% in the series free of seasonal influences in May, indicated the Conjuncture Survey of the Processing Industry of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
"I do not believe the industry is in decline. There is an accommodation of the production at a high level", says the survey coordinator, Aloisio Campelo. To get to that conclusion, he considers other results of the survey, such as the Industry Confidence Index (ICI) that went 0.7% up last month, after falling in April. The ICI is an indicator of how the entrepreneurs feel in relation to the level of demand, inventory, businesses and expectations of employment and production for three months.
The economist observes that the retraction of the installed capacity of the industry in May may indicate the recent investments in the increase of the productive capacity are maturing, that is, going into operation. Another explanation for the fall of the index is the withdrawal of incentives, such as the IPI for home appliances of the white line (stoves, refrigerators and washing machines) and cars, which would be reducing the rate of production. Anyway, he considers it is still too early to conclude there is a new trend.
According to the survey made with nearly 1,200 industries between the 4 and 26 of last month, there was a retraction in May in the level of use of the installed capacity of three segments. In the plants of durable consumer goods, which include home appliances and cars, the installed capacity fell 0.9 percentage point from April to May. As regards the manufacturers of transport equipment, which includes the car industry, the retraction was much less pronounced, from 89.7% to 89.4%, from April to May. Besides durable goods, the survey shows last month there was retraction in the productive capacity of non-durable goods, from 84.7% in April to 81.9% in May, and in capital goods, from 83.4% to 82.8%. In that case, Campelo believes the fall can signal the end of a strong period of expansion of investments.