08/04/2008 11h27
Industrial production reacts and grows 2.7% in June
Folha de S. Paulo - 08/02/2008
Still immune to most recent raise in the basic interest rate, the industrial production reacted in June and grew 2.7% compared to May, when it fell 0.6%. Compared to last year's June, the growth was still greater, 6.6%. It was the greatest monthly rate since October 2007's 3.5%, according to the data of IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). With this esult, the industry ended the first half of 2008 with a growth of 6.3% - the highest rate since the same period of 2004 (8.3%). Such growth has another positive aspect: it was pushed up by the sector of machinery and equipment, which shows a trend of increasing the production. For Sílvio Sales, from the IBGE, the data of June was "widely positive", with "generalized" expansion. The sector, he says, reached a new peak in the level of production in June and left behind the settling-down scenario of previous months. According to him, the monetary tightening has not had any effects on the manufacturing sector yet. "Sales said it is still early to say whether the June result represents a new phase of acceleration of the industrial production growth. One of the uncertain points, he says, is the increase of the supplies, pointed by the survey made with entrepreneurs by the CNI (National Confederation of the Industry). The index of supplies increased from 49.9 points in the first quarter to 50.6 in the second, at a scale from 0 to 100. In the first half of the year, he says, the positive influences of the increases in job positions, in salary mass and in credit still prevailed. In June, the calendar effect also played favorably - there was one more day compared to 2007 and to the historical average. Specialists heard by
Folha say that the effect of the increase in the rate of interest will only be felt from the third quarter of the year on and, more strongly, in 2009 when will reflect in the industry production results and in the GDP.
