Industrial level of occupation resumes rise
O Estado de S. Paulo
The Industry Confidence Index (ICI) published by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) started falling again in June 0.7% compared to the previous month, but such slight fall does not indicate loss of vigor in the industrial activity. Most indicators of the survey used to determine the index still continue at high levels. The index that fell to 115.3 points in June, after reaching 116.1 points in May, practically returned to the level of April this year, which is similar to June 2008, when the international crisis had not affected the Brazilian economy. As for the level of use of the capacity of the plants, for instance, it grew from 84.9% in May to 85.5% in June, reaching its highest level since August 2008 (86.1%). "There is an accommodation of the industry at a high level, compared to the good moments of the activity of 2007 and 2008", says the Deputy Superintendent of Economic Cycles of the FGV, Aloisio Campelo.
Another result of the survey that confirms the vigor of the industry is level of stock. From May to June, it fell from 5.6% to 3.2% the percentage of companies with an excessive volume of products in their storehouses. On the other hand, it increased from 6.1% to 6.2% the amount of companies with insufficient stocks. Last month, the survey asked near 1.2 thousand industries that together sell nearly R$ 600 billion a year. The current situation of the businesses also indicates some accommodation. From May to June, the number of companies considering themselves stable in that regard increased from 55.1% to 60.5%.
The production scheduled for three months, that is, between June and August, increased for the second month in a row. In June, 44.4% of the industries reported they project growth in the production for the period, compared to 40.5% in May and 38.4% in April, when there was strong retraction compared to the previous month. The setting for the industrial production is also favorable when a longer six-month period is taken into account. In June, only 2% of the industries considered a worsening in the future situation of the businesses, less than half the result from May (4.2%) and fairly distant from that of June last year (29%). Campelo highlights that, in June, more than half of the industries (54.8%) expects improvement in the businesses in six months. That is a smaller number than that reached in May (64.5%), but it reflects moderate optimism, since at that period it grew from 31.3% (in May) to 43.2% (in June) the number of industries expecting stability.