Industrial confidence has 10th consecutive growth and breaks pre-crisis level
O Estado de S. Paulo
The Industry Confidence Index (ICI), main indicator of the Conjuncture Survey of the Processing Industry, increased 2.4% in November compared to October, as informed the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) this Monday, 30. From October to November, the ICI increased from 107.0 points to 109.6 points in the series with the seasonal adjustment, the highest level since August last year, according to the FGV. It is the tenth consecutive increase of the indicator.
According to the Foundation, after the tenth consecutive high, the ICI, which surpassed its historical average of 100 points last August, signals the consolidation of the recovery of the industry after the international financial crisis. Compared to November last year, the ICI registered a 35.1% high, well above the positive rate of 7.6% in October, in the data without seasonal adjustment. This was the most intense increase, in this type of comparison, since July 2004.
The Foundation has also reviewed the ICI rate of variation registered for the past month upwards, from 2.7% to 3.3%. That is: even though it is positive, the rate announced this Monday is below the one registered for October. The ICI is formed by two indicators. The first one is the Current Situation Index (ISA), which had a high of 2.9% in November, compared to an increase of 1.4% in October, on the updated data in the series with seasonal adjustment. The second component of the ICI is the Expectation Index (IE), which had an increase of 1.8% in November, after registering a positive rate of 4.2% in October. Compared to November last year, in the data without seasonal adjustment, there were increases of 29.9% and 40.9%, respectively, for the Current Situation Index and the Expectation Index, in November this year.
To calculate the index the FGV makes use of a scale ranging from 0 to 200 points, and the result of the index is one of fall or increase depending whether the total score of the answers is below or above 100 points, respectively. The survey for the calculation of the index was made between the 3rd and the 25th day of this month, in a poll made with 1,122 surveyed companies.