GDP grows less, but with more investments
Valor Econômico
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.3% in the third quarter of this year compared to the second quarter, according to data released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result has changed the assessment on the Brazilian growth rhythm and its composition - the country is growing less than what was expected, but in a better way, with more investment. In the same comparison, investment has grown 6.5%, well above the 2% increase of the consumption of the families and the 0.5% in the government consumption. On the side of the offer, the industry stood out, increasing 2.9% over the second quarter, whereas services increased 1.6% and agriculture withdrew 2.5%.
The figures indicate a more balanced growth of the economy, which should help the country go through 2010 without relevant inflationary pressures - with that, the reasons for the Central Bank (BC) to anticipate a possible cycle of increase in interest rates decrease.
As it is used to do when announcing the GDP of the third quarter of each year, the IBGE announced yesterday the reviews of the quarterly series of the GDP, marked by the inclusion of new information on the economic activity resulting from the updates of the statistics adopted. The result of the second quarter was reviewed from an increase of 1.9% to 1.1% in the relation to the first one, in the series without seasonal influences. The retraction of the fourth quarter of 2008, on its turn, was smaller than expected: instead of a 3.4% fall, there was a 2.9% decrease. In the cumulated of 2009, the GDP now amounts to a 1.7% retreat, increasing the probability that the Brazilian economy shrinks this year, which has not happened since 1992, when there was a negative variation of 0.5%.
Lower interest rates, resumption of the credit and a bet on a stronger growth in the coming years have fueled the investments, according to analysts. Between April and June, the increase in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation - which measures the expenditure in machinery and equipment and in the civil construction and therefore signals the investment - was 2%, more than the 1.1% of GDP and the 1.8% registered by the consumption as a whole (including the consumption of the families and the Government). In the third quarter, the difference was even bigger, with investments growing 6.5% and consumption, 1.7%.
Economist Juan Jensen, of the Tendências Consultoria Integrada consulting firm, sees the recovery of the investments as a good signal. This component of the demand has suffered much with the crisis, but, with the prospect of the resumption of the economy, a part of the companies have resumed investing. Analyst Antônio Madeira, of MCM Consultores Associados, also says that the figures of the GDP have shown a more comfortable situation than what was expected, from the point of view of the occupation of the installed capacity in the economy. Before the announcement of the GDP of the third quarter, he expected that the excess of funds ended at the turn of the year. Now, the tendency is that it takes longer to occur.
The significant growth of the industry was another piece of good news of the result of the GDP in the third quarter. The sector grew 2.9% compared to the previous quarter, when an increase of 2.6% over the first three months of the year had already been registered. "Compared to the previous quarter the country is growing. It is already the second positive rate, after two negative ones, and what is seen is that both the industry and the investments are growing", says Rebeca Palis, manager of the quarterly accounts of the IBGE, recalling that the GDP has resumed to the level registered at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008.