Four groups in dispute for Schincariol
O Estado de S. Paulo
Once the numbers were examined - there were details lacking on the amount of the debts, which did not appear in the last balance sheet of the company disclosed in April -, four large global beverage groups should make proposals for the purchase of the Brazilian Cervejaria Schincariol: the Dutch Heineken, the South African SAB Miller, the English Diageo and the Japanese Kirin. Professionals close to the operation estimate the deal be closed with a total value between R$ 7 billion (US$ 4.38 billion) and R$ 8 billion (US$ 5 billion), including the debt.
Analysts following the brewery segment in the country, however, project the minimum price for sale the of Schincariol at something around ten times its Ebitda (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization), which was R$ 434 million (US $ 246.6 million) in 2010. They assume the last great deal of the segment in Brazil, the sale of Cervejaria Kaiser (Grupo Femsa) to Heineken a year ago, was concluded for a multiple of eight times the Ebtida.
With 13 plants and leader of participation in sales in the Northeast, one of the fastest growing regions in Brazil, Schincariol sold R$ 5.7 billion (US$ 3.24 billion) in 2010, growth of 11.8% compared to the previous year. It is currently a company far more attractive company than Kaiser was at the time of the sale.
But what is really at stake at the moment is not only the sale of Schincariol, but consolidation of the global beer market. Recent studies of the sector, made by investment banks, bet on a new stage of mergers and acquisitions, after the wave of major negotiations occurred in 2007, with the purchase of American giant Anheuser-Busch by the Belgium-Brazilian InBev, which resulted in world-leading AB InBev. In accordance with the current estimates, 60% of the global capacity of the brewery industry is under the control of four mega-companies: AB InBev, Heineken, SAB Miller and the Danish Carlsberg. In terms of earnings, the sector as a whole generated something near US$ 500 billion in sales a year in the past three years.
Of the four dominants in the brewery chessboard, two have still not entered Brazil, which is, after China, one of the most promising markets. In the USA, Europe and Japan, the consumption is falling. The emerging countries are the flavor of the month for the growth of the sector. The Brazil produced more than 12 billion litters last year, a record volume. Nevertheless, the per capita consumption is 48 liters. Germans, for example, drink 110 liters per capita a year.