Emerging countries give signs of recovery
Folha de S. Paulo 05/24/2009
It is "encouraging (and even surprising) the behavior of the labor market in the emerging countries". These words are from the most recent report released by the IIF (Institute of International Finance) that gathers 375 banks in 70 countries, on the crisis. According to the Institute, several developing countries, including Brazil, have already taken the path of recovery, that must be a much longer path for the advanced economies. "The investments and corporate purchases continue very weak in wealthy countries, but there is a great chance of a "revival" in the disbursements with investments among the emerging countries", affirms the Institute.
Unlike what happens in mature countries, where a few positive current signs indicate a decrease in the rhythm of the fall, among the emerging countries the data already show a resumption. "Together, the emerging countries were the last ones to get into recession. Now, it seems they will be the first ones to get out", says the report. For Brazil, the IIF foresees a 3% increase in the GDP in 2010, but it foresees retraction of the economy this year. For the economist Nouriel Roubini consulting firm, RGE, the first one to warn about the current crisis, it is China that gives the "most positive signs" of recovery among the emerging countries. For RGE, in the case of Latin America "there are still limited evidences the region is entering a stage of sustainable recovery". In Brazil, he says: "the industrial production has definitively recovered in the margin (...), but the recovery has not spread through the whole economy".