Economy begins year at strong pace
Folha de S. Paulo
Some sectors of the economy begun 2010 at a "Chinese" pace. In January, the industrial output grew 16% compared to the same period of last year. And in February, the consumption of energy increased 12.1%; the production of cars, 23.9%, and the flow of trucks on the roads, 11.9% compared to the same month of 2009. It is a fact the comparison is made with a period in which the country was under the strong influence of the world crisis. But these growth rates are so high they allow economists to foresee strong growth for the economy this year.
The dynamism of the economy is also seen in the confidence surveys made with entrepreneurs and consumers, in the sales of the commerce and in the use of the installed capacity of the plants, which got to 84% in February this year, the highest level since October 2008. That is the result, according to economists, of the fall of the interest rate, the increase of the offer of credit and of the terms for repayment of loans made by companies and individuals.
In addition to those, there was the reduction of the IPI (Excise Tax) for household appliances, cars, furniture, and construction material. This is also the year of the FIFA Soccer World CupTM and of the elections, when the Government spends more and, thus, increases the demand of sectors of the economy. "The set of measures adopted last year allowed the economy to resume the pace of activity in the second half and enter 2010 with a strong growth speed", says Fábio Silveira, Managing Partner of RC Consultores - a consulting firm.
The growth of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2009 (2% compared to the third quarter of 2009 and 4.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008) shows, according to Silveira, the recovery of the economy, driven by industry and by the service sector. "Such inertia will be transferred to this first quarter". Should there be no worsening of the foreign crisis the country gathers today all the conditions to have a good economic performance this year, according to economists heard by Folha.
The industrial production, according to estimates of economists, should grow between 6.5% and 7% this year, after a 7.4% fall last year. The sales in the retail should increase 8.5% this year (they grew 5.9% last year), and the GDP, 5%, after falling 0.2% in 2009. What should drive the growth of the economy upwards in this first quarter are mainly, the industry, the services sector and civil engineering.