Economy accelerates expansion in 3rd quarter
Folha de S. Paulo
Indicators of industrial production, retail sales, car licensing, consumption of electric energy and flow of cars on the roads show that the performance of the economy in the third quarter will be better than the performance from April to June this year and than that from the same period of 2008. Economists and representatives of entities of the industry and the commerce foresee that, from July to September, the Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) should grow nearly 3% compared to the previous quarter and 0.5% compared to last year's same period.
The GDP of the second quarter of this year will be announced today by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The expectation is that the result should be positive in the comparison with the first quarter - something between 1.6% and 2% - and negative in relation to last year - the estimated fall is between 1% and 1.5%. Should the forecast for the third quarter of this year be confirmed, the pace of the activity of the economy should get back to the level it was until last September, the month that marked the worsening of the international financial crisis.
The recovery of the industrial production in July compared to June is mentioned as one of the main indicators that the worst of the crisis has already gone. "The industrial sector - manly the exporting companies - was the one that suffered with the crisis the most. The recovery in the production, after July, the improvement in the credit offer, the good performance of the service industry, the increase in the sales of the commerce and the increase of the confidence in the economy show Brazil managed to wiggle out the crisis", says Fábio Silveira, managing partner of the RC Consultores consulting company.
"What also stimulates the economy in this quarter are lower interest rates, the reduced IPI (Excise Tax) on cars, building material and home appliances, besides the increase of the income of the workers", affirmed Ariadne Vitoriano, analyst of Tendências.