Early announcement of GDP rate points to growth in quarter
Valor Econômico
At the beginning of the second quarter of this year, the economic activity of the country presented slight deceleration compared to the month of March, but the pace of growth registered in April still remains at a high level. The Index of Economic Activity of the Central Bank (IBC-Br), indicator of the Monetary Authority that tries to foresee the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), featured growth of 0.44% in April, compared to the previous month, going from 142.97 points to 143.6 points, in the series without the seasonal adjustments. The pace represents fall compared to the growth registered in March, when the monthly growth was 0.51% compared to February. In February, the activity had grown less, 0.36%, showing there is still some volatility in the data on the performance of the economy.
In quarterly terms, the growth of the IBC-Br between February and April, compared to the previous three months (November 2010 to January 2011), was 1.33%, a slight acceleration compared to the first quarter ended between January and March (1.26%). In annualized terms, the quarterly growth indicates an expansion of the product of nearly 5.4%, practically the same as registered in the previous month.
To the Chief Economist of Máxima Asset Management, Elson Teles, the data exceed his expectation. "The market still does not disclose the specific estimates of the index, but I have the impression it was stronger than expected, because part of the market was greatly influenced by the 2.1% fall in industrial production in April", he says. For the Economist, the IBC-Br of April shows the economy will continue growing in the second half, because even if there is not increase in the activity in May and June, an increase of 0.44% in April guarantees carry over nearly 0.9% in the second quarter of the year. According to Teles, the activity is slowing down "at a very slow pace". "The economy is accommodating, but at a very smooth rhythm. Only over time the data will say if the pace is at the level the BC (Central Bank) would like, moving on to a growth of 4% at the end of the year".
"The number is strong, indicating the economy continues growing above its potential in the margin", says the evaluation of Barclays Capital. "The data strengthen our view that the economic activity in Brazil is moderating, not falling off a cliff". Barclays foresees growth of 3.8% for the GDP this year. According to sources of the Government, the signs so far indicated that at the beginning of the second quarter the pace of growth of the economy is already more modest than that seen in the first three months of the year. Besides, they assess that the numbers suggest the work of the BC has been successful.