Despite far from 2008s rhythm, industrial activity starts resumption
Valor Econômico 04/01/2009
The Brazilian industry started giving signals of recovery in March, but it is still far from recovering last year's rhythm. The perception of the companies on the level of demand of the global market last year was the highest since November 2008, with a growth of 6.1% compared to this year's February. According to a survey made on the industrial sector by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), 11.9% of the companies considered the demand level was strong in March, whereas the percentage was 4% in February. The result is pushed up by the domestic market, in which the demand is strong for 13.3% of the companies, more than twice February's 6%. The perception that the foreign market is weak, however, increased from 40.2% in February to 46.9% in March, the worst result since January of 1983.
Another indication that the production is recovering is that the use of the installed capacity stopped falling. The index went from 77.6% in February to 77.7% in March. The slight recovery of the industrial production also gives signals in the level of stocks. The number of companies saying they have insufficient stocks is still low, 1.8%, but it maintains the trend of increase, which started in February, when the result was 0.1%. The percentage of those that consider the stocks excessive remained unchanged, going from 17.5% in February to 17.9% in March. The sector of transport materials is among those which are recovering, as a consequence of the recent reduction of the Excise Tax (IPI). The projection that the production should increase in the next three months increased in March compared to February. For 27.7% of the industries, the expected production will be bigger, a percentage that only fails to exceed the result of October, considering the crisis period. The number of companies that believe the production will be smaller, on their turn, fell from 27.1% in February to 19.9%. The level of confidence of the industry grew 2.2% in March compared to the previous year. The situation, however, still appears not to be sufficient for the industry to think about resuming hiring or investing. The perception of the companies on the current situation of the business fell 0.7% compared to February.