Country to be 6th biggest in oil, says agency
Folha de S. Paulo
In 2015 Brazil will be the sixth biggest oil producer in the world, surpassing some of the most traditional countries in fuel extraction, according to the forecast of the IEA (International Energy Agency). With the discoveries in the pre-salt layer, Brazil will have a daily production of 3.1 million barrels, ahead of countries like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq that are members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel responsible for nearly 40% of the product consumed in the world), always based on the study made by the IEA.
Should these predictions become real, Brazil will also become the biggest producer of Latin America, surpassing Mexico and Venezuela. Last year, the country was the 11th biggest producer, with the extraction of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. The 3.1 million barrels foreseen by the Agency for 2015 are below the latest estimate it made in June for 2014. At the time, the agency said the Brazilian production would get to 3.4 million barrels a day - with constant increase in extraction starting next year.
The IEA points out that Brazil, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are the only countries that are not members of the OPEC that will have significant increase in the production within the coming years. In the case of Brazil, this growth is due to the recent discoveries in deep waters. Looking further ahead, to 2030, Brazil will lose a position in the ranking, being surpassed by Canada and Iraq - but leaving China behind. In the period from 2008 to 2030, only Iraq and Canada (due to the extraction of oil from bituminous sands) will have an annual growth superior the Brazilian in the production.
The Brazilian advance, when the extraction of the pre-salt layer is probably at its apex, will take place in a period in which the world consumption will continue growing, but less than the IEA imagined. The Agency estimates a daily global demand of 105.2 million barrels in 2030, 1 million barrels less than it foresaw last year. The world oil consumption last year amounted to 88.4 million barrels a day.