07/01/2008 10h50
Confidence of the industry grows in the short run
O Estado de S. Paulo - 07/01/2008
Entrepreneurs of the transformation industry remain confident in the good perspectives of production, sales and jobs in the short term. But there is already some concern about the setting for the next six months, points the Transformation Industry Survey made by Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV). The Industry Confidence Index (ICI), an indicator that summarizes the mood of the entrepreneurs of the sector, ended up June with an increase of 3% in the comparison with the same month of last year and an increase of 1.6% compared to May of 2008. "The results of the short term variables are strong", states Aloisio Campelo, the coordinator of the research. "However, some concern can be seen regarding the feeling of the entrepreneurs for a longer period." According to the survey made last month, which heard 1,031 industries that sell, together, R$ 546.5 billion (US$ 341.6 billion) a year, 9% of them declared businesses will worsen in the next six months. This result is more than the double of the result registered in the same period of last year (4%) and the greatest since October, 2006 (10%). With the tighter monetary policy to control the increase of inflation, it is natural, according to Campelo, that entrepreneurs become more cautious. He remarks that such caution has already been seen in the reduction of the consumer confidence. In industry's case, the movement is slight and may become clearer in the mid-run. In the short term, the increase in the use of the installed capacity strengthens the optimism of the industry. In June, this index reached 86.4%, compared to 84.7% of June, 2007. "The level is high, but it is not worrying", says Campelo. He notices that from May to June there was some stabilization of sectors that were under pressure, such as the sectors of steelworks and mechanics. On the other hand, sectors related to agricultural commodities and chemical products used in the production of fertilizers increased the use of the installed capacity. "The increase is not huge, but the level is far above last year's level", he says. These are the sectors that currently have their prices under pressure and are responsible for inflation. According to the research, the internal demand remains strong and pushes the global demand upwards. In June, 34% of the companies informed that the internal demand is strong. It is the same percentage as the previous month's and it is little above the percentage registered in June, 2007 (31%). The external demand surprised us, says Campelo. It went up in June after two consecutive months of fall.
