Companies hire with an eye on 2010
Valor Econômico
The impressive recovery of employment in the post-crisis period reached, in November, the result that best symbolizes the resumption of economic activity. The positive balance of 246.6 thousand jobs created last month, according to data released yesterday by the General Record of Employed and Unemployed People (Caged), of the Ministry of Labor, indicates different sectors of the economy are getting ready for a very strong start in 2010, impressing a rhythm that, throughout next year, may correspond to a growth above 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The recovery of employment has been influenced by positive data in the industry, commerce and services, but analysts asked by Valor say that as the last two sectors were already having impressive results throughout the year, it was the industry that surprised in the consolidated data. In November, a month normally filled with negative seasonality in the factories, that is, with more layoffs than hires, the aggregate of the industrial sector was positive at 40.9 thousand job positions - in the same period in 2007, when the country grew at rates of 6% a year, the result was negative (-2.5 thousand). Even in the field last month's indicators were very encouraging. While historically November concentrates negative balances of the nearly 50 thousand jobs, on the average, last month's mark was negative at only 16.6 thousand positions.
The reassembly of the manpower has been strong in sector that works as grounds for a greater growth rate. Impressive results in the industry and in the construction sector - which until July had already recovered the layoffs registered in the last quarter of 2008 - signal the maintenance of the GDP that should end at zero this year.
According to Pedro Paulo Silveira, Head Economist of Gradual Investmentos, the expectation of strong growth in the first quarter of 2010 has been anticipated. "We are already living the quarter of strong growth, as the data on the activity of this last quarter of the year, which will be released in January, should prove", he assesses. According to the Economist, the data of the retail - 331.5 thousand openings, with a positive balance of 104.7 thousand jobs - presents the "best indication for what is about to come" as it signals to the industry that the domestic market is strong.