CNI foresees 7.5% increase in consumption
Valor Econômico - 04/01/2008
The consumption of the families, encouraged by the increase of the number of employed people and by the official programs of transference of income, will have greater weight on the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year. This is one of the main changes in the economic perspectives of the country for 2008, released by the National Confederation of the Industry (CNI). Economists of the entity have informed that, according to their projections, families should consume 7.5% more than last year. In December, the forecast was for an increase of 6.2%. CNI's head economist Flávio Castelo Branco pointed out the importance of four other reviews to the projections for the economy in 2008. Regarding December's calculations, the entity identified more inflation, greater current account deficit, more importation and exportation and more jobs. Besides the upward reviews in the consumption of the families, in the current account deficit and in inflation, the CNI has also recognized that the country will increase its importation in 2008. In December, the projection was US$ 150 billion in purchases of foreign products, but it went up to US$ 165 billion. Concerning the exports, the entity has also identified growth from US$ 175 billion (December) to US$ 190 billion. The trade balance remains at US$ 25 billion. CNI's Conjunctural Report also revealed the forecast of 5% for growth of the GDP and the industrial product in 2008 was maintained. The sector will have to meet the demand of the greater consumption of the families and, therefore, replace the supplies. One among four industries started 2008 with supplies below planned. According to the CNI, the amount of formal jobs will continue to grow this year. The average unemployment rate may stay at 8.4%, 0.6 percentage point below the 9% calculated last December. In 2007, the level of unemployment was at 9.3% of the Economically Active Population (PEA).