CNI expects 24.5% increase in productive investment in 2010
Valor Econômico
The greatest growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter caused the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) to increase from 6% to 7.2% the growth forecast for 2010. For the industrial sector, the estimate of growth increases from 8% to 12.3%. Nearly all economic indicators have been revised upwards, with an emphasis on the investment that went from 18% up to 24.5%. The CNI assesses there will be a slowdown this half compared to the first half of the year. Still, there is a tendency for a heated level of activity with the use of the installed capacity between 83% and 84%.
The Executive Manager of the Economic Policy Unit of the CNI, Flávio Castelo Branco, stressed out the upward trajectory of private and public investment. "The participation of the investments in the GDP should be record, getting to 19.4%", he said. Separately, he mentioned the greater production of machinery and equipment, the construction of plants, the erection of new housing units and public and private works of infrastructure. Castelo Branco recalled these projects are being implemented and they have contributed to increase the productive capacity of the manufacturing Park. That is why, he emphasized, notwithstanding the demand continues high, the use of the installed capacity shall range between 83% and 84%, regardless of the pressure between the supply and the demand on the perspective of the industrial sector.
Still among the components of the GDP, the CNI increased the household consumption from 6.2% to 7.3%. As regards price variation, the projection for the IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index) remained stable at 5.4%. "Inflation continues above the center of the goal, but that was caused, mainly, by the prices of food and services", he says. On the Selic rate, there is a perspective of short and intense cycle of restrictive monetary policy. For the CNI, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank will increase the interest rate for two more times, with the rate getting to 11.50% in December. The previous projection was of 11%.
The less optimistic projections are for the external sector, sustained by the trend of greater evolution in the imports rather than the exports and increase of the negative balance in current transactions. In the trade balance, the forecast is of US$ 190 billion in exports, and US$ 180 billion in imports. With that, the indication of deficit in the current account of the balance of payments increased from US$ 50 billion to US$ 54 billion.