CNI already projects GDP growth of nearly 6%
Valor Econômico
The National Confederation of the Industry (CNI) should announce the projections that show the growth of the economy by near 6% in 2010 this week. This estimate is more optimistic than that disclosed in the beginning of the year, when the industries pointed to growth of 5.5% for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
According to the Executive Manager of economic policy of the CNI, Flavio Castelo Branco, the figures are still undergoing a review, but it is virtually certain the projection to be announced "will be more favorable" than that made in early 2010. "We are closing the projections. Then, we are raising the latest information and I believe we are moving towards a stronger economic pace, maybe near 6%".
Castelo Branco has emphasized it will be a number below the most optimistic estimates, since many analysts speak of rates above 7%, well above the foreseen by the government in the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) of 5.2%. "Such growth is leveraged by a strong domestic demand of consumption and investment, but still there is not such a strong counterpart from abroad".
As for the information disclosed by the IMF that the emerging countries run the risk overheating, the Economist said he thinks that is natural since what the Fund did was to alert for a little stronger pace economic growth. "If we analyze it, the estimates of the IMF are fairly low or in the low tier, both of the domestic and international market", he says. According to Castello Branco, that shows the Fund is alert to "some pressure from inflation", a problem inherent to growth. Castello Branco reminded Brazil has positions of inflation higher than that of the world average, which for him, leads to the conclusion that the Fund has not given an alert, but "call the attention" to the problem.