10/07/2008 11h38
Businesspeople complain at credit, but many keep plans for 2009
Valor Econômico - 10/07/2008
Credit is scarcer and more expensive and the US dollar continues in steady high, yet several companies still keep the growth forecasts for 2009. In a breakfast held by the Brazilian Institute of Financing Executives of São Paulo (Ibef-SP), yesterday, most businesspeople heard by Valor did not draw a pessimistic scenario for next year. The expectation is that their invoicing grows less than in 2008, but the previous estimates already brought a weaker scenario of expansion in 2009 in them. The biggest complaint is really about the worsening of the credit conditions. The offered money has diminished and the interests charged are higher. According to the financial and administrative director of the Energias do Brasil Group, Thomas Brull, the cost of lines such as working capital and guaranteed accounts had considerable highs. "Credit has clearly become more expensive". The rates charged by the banks in the guaranteed accounts, which were around 105% of the CDI before the worsening of the crisis, went up to 110% of the CDI, reaching, in some cases, even 120% of the CDI, says Brull, who is also president of the Ibef-SP. Energias do Brasil has not change its expectations for 2009 yet - it is in process of defining forecasts of invoicing and investment, according to him. Brull does not reveal the expansion rates that are expected for this year and for the next one, because it is an open capital company. Parts Import, a trading company (,) which works with exportation and importation, also feels some worsening in the credit conditions. According to Sérgio Volk, Parts' partner, the terms of the Advances of the Exchange Contract (ACCs) and of the Advances of Delivered Exchanges (ACEs) have shrunk considerably, a process that occurs at the same time of a high in charged rates. Those problems were not sufficient for Volk to review the forecasts of invoicing expansion in 2009. He continues betting in a 5% high for next year, a little below 6% to 7% estimated for this year. Morganite Brasil, a thermal ceramic and carbon industry that supplies inputs to the industrial sector, has suffered less with the credit high because it basically uses only its own funds. After an estimated growth of 10% this year, he believes that the invoicing high should fall to a lower level, more typical of the sector, between 3% and 4%. With prices in US dollar, software company Cincom Systems does not see the devaluation as bad, either, according to director and general-manager Ivan de Souza. Cincom's problem is in the worsening of the credit terms. He says that, even for the working capital lines, banks started asking for guarantees that were not required before the worsening of the international financial crisis. During the event, the businesspeople watched a lecture delivered by former minister Antonio Delfim Netto. According to him, Brazil will obviously fell part of the effects of the crisis, as it is more integrated with the world, but the impact should not be too intense. For him, it is possible that the Country still grows even a little more than 4% in 2009 - the market foresees 3.5%. This year, the expectation is of a high greater than 5%. Delfim emphasized the importance of guaranteeing that exporters have access to credit - in the afternoon, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank (BC) announced that they are going to use reserve's and BNDES' funds to finance exportations. According to Delfim, the BNDES, Banco do Brasil bank and the Federal Savings Bank should have work more intensely in a credit contraction moment.
