12/19/2008 15h41
Brazil to grow more than its neighbors in 2009
Folha de S. Paulo - 12/19/2008
The economies of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow, on the average, only 1.9% in 2009, year that will mark the end of a period of expansion seen only a few times in the region. Brazil will remain above the regional average, with an increase of 2.1%. The figures are from the ECLAC (UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean), which released its annual statement yesterday. Even though it foresees that the 28 countries of the region will not go into recession in 2009, the organization considers an optimistic scenario, with the world crisis starting to run out of fuel in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, it does not rule out the possibility of the recession "continuing and deepening". Pushed by the external demand and by the increase in the price of the basic products (like oil, minerals and grains), the region, according to Cepal, had an average growth of 5% a year between 2003 and 2008, with increase the
per capita GDP above 3%. There was an improvement in the indicators of the work market and 30 million people less living in poverty. Now, with the post-crisis world retraction (with growth of 3.7% in 2008 compared to 5% in 2007), a regional unemployment rate would go from 7.5% this year to 7.8% or 8.1% in 2009, with an increase in the number of informal jobs. Cepal also estimates a slow-down in inflation - from 8.5% to 6% -, in line with the fall in the prices of foods and oil. "The engines of growth are being turned off one-by-one", said the executive-secretary of the agency, Alícia Bárcena. The impact of the crisis will be greater in opener economies that sell more (mainly manufactures) to developed countries - Mexico, for example, which depends on the USA, has the lowest growth estimate of the region, -0.5%. The agency numbers five "real channels" of transmission of the world crisis to the region: export deceleration, fall in the prices of primary goods, reduction of the emigrant remittances, lower income from tourism and retraction of the direct foreign investment. Cepal emphasizes the increase of the activity in the country in 2008. It mentions the growth of 15% in the gross fixed investment in the first half and the increase of 14.3% to 17.1% of the indicator as a percentage of the GDP since 2005.
