08/20/2008 09h06
Brazil to be the eighth world economy in 2030, says a study
Folha de S. Paulo - 08/20//2008
At an average rhythm of 4% a year, the Brazilian economy will have grown 150% until 2030. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will then reach US$ 2.4 trillion and the consumption of the families will go from the current R$ 1.41 trillion (US$ 898.1 billion) to R$ 3.3 trillion (US$ 2.1 trillions). Brazil will leap from the tenth largest economy of the World to the eighth one and will have the fifth greatest World consumer market. This is the future that FGV (
Getulio Vargas Foundation) and Ernst & Young audit and consulting company foresee for the country, according to the study entitled "
Brasil Sustentável - Crescimento Econômico e Potencial de Consumo" (Sustainable Brazil - Economic Growth and Consumption Potential), released yesterday. The main progress boosters will be: universalization of education, price stability and social mobility, resulted from income increase. "Such process makes the middle class grow and generates an opportunity of unprecedented expansion of the consumer market", declares Professor Fernando Garcia, from
FGV Projetos. According to the projections that are part of the research, the lowest class (E class with a monthly income of up to R$ 1,000/US$ 637) will retreat at an average rate of 0.4% a year, shrinking from 31.7 million families in 2007 to 29.1 million families in 2030. In this same period, the C class (with income between R$ 2,000/US$ 1,274 and R$ 4,000/US$ 2,548) will grow 4.2% a year, reaching 21.8 million families, and B class (with income from R$ 4,000/US$ 2,548 to R$ 8,000/US$ 5,096) will increase 5.4% a year, until it reaches 11 million families. The consumer market will have an average increase of 3.8% a year in this period. "Such evolution is superior to that of the mature economies", says Sergio Citeroni, partner of Ernst & Young. With that amount of consumers, Brazil will surpass France, the United Kingdom and Germany in the ranking of the greatest markets. Nonetheless, among the emerging powers that integrate the Bric group, it will rank merely third, behind China and India. As for Russia, it will occupy the 10
th position in the international ranking. The areas of products that will grow the most until 2030 are those of personal hygiene and cleaning (4.8% a year), health (4.4%) and financial services (4.4%). Those of the educational segment and culture will grow 4.3% a year. The group of foods "
in natura" will present the lowest average high, 2.5% a year. As the area of food outside home, it will increase 3.6% a year, next to hotel accommodation, According to Garcia and Citeroni, the scenario considers that the Brazil's structural problems, such as precarious infrastructure in electric energy, highways, and ports, will be reasonably overcome, so that they will not hinder the development. For the industries, the main challenge will be investment in research and technological innovation. "Companies will have to make an effort to put their brands in the spotlight", emphasizes Citeroni.
