Brazil should drive regional growth
O Estado de S. Paulo
The IMF has revised upwards the growth estimates for Brazil in 2009 and 2010. Although foreseeing the Brazilian economy might shrink 0.7% this year (the Ministry of Finance believes in a 1% growth), the Fund says it is Brazil that will drive upwards the average of Latin America, which may shrink 2.5% in 2009. For 2010, the IMF sees a GDP of 3.5% in Brazil, below the expectation of the market of 4.5%. The Ministry of Finance, on the other hand, sees 5%. "For the region, there are indications the recovery has returned and it should reach a moderate speed in the second half, with Brazil ahead", says the IMF's World Economic Outlook.
In Latin America, the two countries that should suffer more with the impacts of the crisis this year are Argentina (fall of 2.5% in the GDP) and Venezuela (-2%). "Brazil should lead the region in part due its large domestic market and because it has a diversified export market both in terms of products and destinations, specially regarding Asia", says IMF. Asia will continue leading the world as the most dynamic region this year and in 2010. China should grow 8.5% this year, and India 5.4%.
The report of the Fund affirms that a great part of the recovery in Latin America in this second half and probably next year will be supported by the increase in the prices of the commodities exported by the region. The IMF considers, however, that the prices of the basic products will hardly increase more in the short or medium terms. The explanation for the current recovery, according to the Fund, is that the fall in 2008 was to strong, and that led to the formation of stocks by the consumers.