At 15th review upwards, Focus foresees GDP to grow 7.13%
O Estado de S. Paulo
The financial market seems to ignore the current cycle of increase in the interest rate and the forecasts for the growth of the economy are every time more optimistic. The weekly survey conducted by the Central Bank shows the expectation of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009 increased for the 15th consecutive week, from 7.06% to 7.13%. The estimates have increased nonstop since the end of March. At the time, the bet was almost 2 percentage points lower, with 5.50% of growth. Analysts foresee the strong reaction of the economy will be headed by the industrial segment. As for the production of the plants, there is the expectation of an increase of 11.94% of the activity in 2010 in the accumulated in 2010 compared to 2009.
Such exuberant performance, however, won't be seen in 2011. As a result of the process of lifting the economic benefits granted during the crisis and the beginning of the cycle of monetary tightening, the market foresees the economy will slow down and it will end the next year with 4.50% growth. The same survey anticipated the schedule for the increase of the interest rate in the coming months. Analysts say the current cycle of increase of the Selic rate (basic interest rate) should end in October and no longer in December. According to the calculations of the market, the rate should climb 0.75 percentage point up during the next two meetings of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee). So, it might reach 11% in July and 11.75% in September. Then there would be a smaller increase of 0.25 point to 12% in October. In the last month of 2009, there would be no change. As regards inflation, the estimate of increase of the official index of inflation this year fell from 5.61% to 5.55%.