Analysts increase GDP projection
Valor Econômico
Financial market analysts asked by the Central Bank (BC) resumed increasing the estimates for the growth of the economy this year. The projection for the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 went from 5.47% to 5.50%, according to the Focus bulletin, released yesterday by the BC. Four weeks ago, the estimated growth was 5.30%. For 2011, the growth forecast for the GDP was kept at 4.5%.
Analysts have raised the projection for the official inflation for the fifth week in a row. Now, the estimate for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is 4.86% compared to 4.80% foreseen in the previous survey. Four weeks ago, the expectation was 4.60%. The estimate of the analysts for the IPCA is above the center of the goal of inflation this year, 4.5%. The goal has a margin of two percentage points above or below. It is up to the BC to pursue the goal of inflation and to do so it makes use of the Selic, the basic interest rate, as its main instrument.
When it believes the trajectory of inflation is one of high and the economy is heated, the BC increases the basic interest. That is what analysts expect for the Selic this year. The expectation is that the interest rates should get to 11.25% at the end of 2010, the same as that of the previous week. Currently, the Selic is at 8.75% a year. Next year, the analysts expect the IPCA to remain at the center of the 4.5% goal.
The Focus bulletin also includes projections for the General Price Index - Internal Availability (IGP-DI), which should remain at 5.58% this year, compared to the 5.51% foreseen before. For the General Market Prices Index (IGP-M), the estimate went from 5.26% to 5.30%. The estimate for the Consumer Price Index of Economic Research Institute Foundation (IPC-Fipe) this year was changed from 5.28% to 5.26%. For 2011, the estimate for all the indexes - IGP-DI, IGP-M and IPC-Fipe - remains at 4.5%.