08/01/2008 09h07
Analysts expect industry growth up to 6.7% in the first half
Valor Econômico 08/01/2008
The Brazilian industrial activity ended the first half of the year with strong growth, though more modest than the second half of 2007, when the production registered an increase of 7.1%, according to data of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). For the first six months of this year, economists estimate an increase between 5.6% and 6.7% compared to last year's same period. Even the most optimistic forecast points to a slight reduction in the rhythm of growth of the industrial production. In June, however, indexes signaled production increase, making up for the 0.5% fall registered in May compared to the previous month. The reduction was mostly caused by the smaller number of working days - 20 this year, compared to an average of 21 to 22 days in previous years - due to the Corpus Christi holiday. June, on its turn, had 22 business days, two more than the average. "June's data will be inflated by such difference of days and the production of capital goods, which may compensate the fall registered in May", assessed Bráulio Borges, economist from LCA Consultores, which foresees a 6.4% increase for the month compared to June, 2007, and 2.8% over May, with seasonal adjustment. Sérgio Vale, chief economist of MB Associados, also believes the production of capital goods will be stronger in June, but he estimates a smaller growth of 1% over May in the industrial production. To Vale, who estimates, for the first half, growth of 6.7% in the industrial production and 5% in the year, the tighter monetary policy must contribute for the slow down of the industrial activity in the third and fourth quarters. The industrial survey made with 1,488 companies and released yesterday by the National industrial Confederation (CNI), confirms the economists' forecasts. According to the survey, the index of evolution of the production was at 56.5 points in the second quarter, above the one registered in the first quarter (52.2 points) and that from same period of 2007 (56.2 points). The level of use of the installed capacity was 77%, two percent above what was registered in the first three months of the year.
