Agribusiness exportation rhythm to be resumed, says Cepea
DCI
The international transactions in agribusiness should register a more accelerated pace already in the second half of this year. The forecast was made by researchers of the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea), of the Esalq (Luis de Queiroz Superior School of Agriculture)/USP, responsible for the export indices of the sector.
In their analysis, however, the researchers made considerations on two situations that might limit such recovery. In the short term, the reaction could result merely in a restoration of stocks in view of the tax and monetary incentives applied at the peak of the crisis, and may be dissipated in the next months, with which it would go back to a weaker performance of the world economy.
In the long term, the recovery could be restricted by efforts that aimed at controlling any inflationary process resulting from a very strong recovery of the prices of commodities unleashed by tax and monetary incentives provided as a response to the crisis.
Regarding to the results of the exports of the agribusiness in the first half, the Cepea indexes show the retraction of the attractiveness prevailed. Comparing the results of the period with those of the 1st half of 2008, the fall in the prices of the exports of the agribusiness products in US Dollars (IPE-Agro/Cepea) reached 12%. The volume (IVE-Agro/Cepea), however, kept increasing (5.6%).
Soy oil, alcohol, paper and pulp and pork meat had a retraction in attractiveness above 16%. In the opposite situation were sugar (24.28%), soy bran (13.39%) and wood and furniture (6.44%). In relation to the regional behavior, the Southeast, the South and the Mid-West suffered retractions in prices, whereas the North and Northeast registered increase. Regarding volume, the South and Southeast were not favored either, registering a decrease in the main agricultural products they export.