Indexes suggest warmed quarter
Valor Econômico - 02/29/2008
The industrial activity indexes give signs that, in the first quarter, the production in the country will grow with the same vigor seen the last three months of 2007. The industry of the State of São Paulo, which represents nearly 40% of the country's industrial production, is expected to grow above the 8% registered in the country between October and December until March. The Index that shows the Level of Activity of the processing industry of São Paulo (INA), verified by the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp), indicated a growth of 2.2% in January compared to December, including the seasonal adjustment. In the comparison with January of 2007, the increase was 11.3%. In 12 months, the INA accumulated an increase of 6.6%, 0.6 percent points above that verified in the 12 months ended in December. The Fiesp Sensor, which tries to anticipate the performance of the industries in the current month, points to a rise in the activity compared to January, with the general index going from 52 to 53.9 points. For Júlio Gomes de Almeida, consultant of the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi), some previous indexes, such as the production of cardboard and car traffic, indicate that the industrial activity in the first quarter will grow at least at the same level as the last year's fourth quarter. "Data from the retail also indicate good activity in the beginning of this year", added Almeida. A survey made by Serasa indicated growth of 9.5% in the country's retail sales in January, compared to the same period of 2007. Fernando Montero, chief economist of Convenção Corretora, remarks that some macroeconomic signs also indicate acceleration, such as the increase of importations in 50% in the quarter ended in February (compared to the period from November to January), the growth of the real mass of salaries - which, according to the IBGE, grew 17.8% in December compared to November -, and the rise in the use of the installed capacity. In São Paulo, the level of use of such capacity in January reached 81.9%, the highest of the data series started in 2001. The Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) is betting on a growth in the industrial production of 8.5% in the country in January, in comparison with the same period of 2007, and a growth of 1.7% over December (de-seasonalized). And for the quarter, it is expected an increase close to 8%. Besides the previous favorable indexes, Ipea takes into account the low supplies of the industries and the still warmed demand in the domestic market.